Recently, I discussed the Probability Method (read here). The method, or more precisely, a step in the method has serious implications for theists. I mentioned that Baye’s Theorem can be used to test a given god hypothesis; however, Bayesian theory requires that one tests one’s hypothesis against alternative hypotheses. Most of today’s theists are monotheists; thus, their analysis will consist of their one hypothesis against many others. How many? That would depend on their background knowledge.
Let us assume that I am a theist that believes in one god; I would be required to test that hypothesis against all of the gods that I know. From memory and after a few hours of sleep last night, I can easily name 20-25 other gods. Therefore, my analysis will be my h (one god) against every other ~h (20-25 other gods). The probability of my hypothesis being the more probable of hypotheses is already low—we know this intuitively; the odds are stacked against my hypothesis from the onset. That is the theist’s problem. They are claiming that they are certain of their one god. However, an honest analysis will prove otherwise—there can only be uncertainty! Therefore, even if one is a theist, the probability method should lead one to agnosticism—whether theist or atheist matters not in this case. Of course, the Probability Method goes beyond the analysis of an individual hypothesis. An atheist must arrive at the percentage of certainty; that will decide whether one is a gnostic atheist or an agnostic atheist. A theist cannot arrive at this step because their calculations end in the analysis phase. They are simply testing their h against ~h. Levels of certainty are inapplicable in their case because most gnostic theists will tell you that the probability of another god beside their god existing is asymptotically approaching zero; therefore, their level of certainty is entirely negligible—not to mention skewed by predilection.